Confused by any of the jargon you see below? Check the Y2K Glossary!
Why is it that the Pollyannas are so certain that there will only be a few JA effects[*]?
Because, like Clinton supporters, proof and honesty are irrelevant in their beliefs hierarchy. Therefor, there is no need to wait and see what happens in first quarter 1999 because evidence is simply not relevant to a Pollyanna. Objectivity is unimportant when sifting through the enormous amount of negative and alarmingly pessimistic evidence that does exist and increasingly continues to come to light at a rate so staggeringly higher than “good news” in order to find a few measly scraps of “good news” and hold them up for all to see as “evidence” that everything is going to be okay. This is like saying to the families of the victims of a catastrophic airplane crash that not every part of the aircraft was destroyed. “Take that three square foot section of fuselage between rows 24 and 25--it came out okay. A bit ragged at the edges, but okay.”
Example: SSA is ready. Good news? No. Bad news. If SSA had started two or three years ago their success would be good news. They started approximately ten years ago. It has taken them ten years. Since the overwhelming majority of public and private organizations started at least five years after them this translates to bad news unless you ignore the incontrovertible evidence that it took SSA ten or blindly assume that the rest can do it better and faster by a degree no less than 100%. If you are a Pollyanna such ignorance is but a tool of the trade. After Y2K and if there is a global modern systemic meltdown the pollyannas will still be able to say, “Look at SSA (3 sq. ft. section)! It came out okay!” And they probably will as long as there is food in their cupboard.
Hendrickson, comp.software.year-2000, 01/05/99
This link is well worth reading for a global view of 1999.
SUMMARY * Russia will begin the process of recreating old Soviet empire in 1999. The most important question of 1999: will Ukraine follow Belarus into federation with Russia? * Russia and China will be moving into a closer, primarily anti- American alliance in 1999. * Asian economies will not recover in 1999. Japan will see further deterioration. So will China. Singapore and South Korea will show the strongest tendency toward recovery. * China will try to contain discontent over economic policies by increasing repression not only on dissidents, but the urban unemployed and unhappy small business people. Tensions will rise. * Asia will attempt to protect itself from U.S. economic and political pressures. Asian economic institutions, like an Asian Monetary Fund, will emerge in 1999. * The Serbs, supported by the Russians, will test the United States in Kosovo. There is increasing danger of a simultaneous challenge from Serbia and Iraq, straining U.S. military capabilities dramatically. * The main question in Europe will be Germany’s reaction to the new Russia. The Germans will try to avoid answering that question for most of the year. * Latin America appears ready to resume its economic expansion, beginning late in 1999.
However, they have obviously screwed up badly - not even one mention of y2k.
I sent them the following e-mail, will post any reply.
whilst I normally highly respect your analyses, you chaps have seriously fallen down on the 1999 predictions.
Not *ONE* mention of the y2k problem???
I find this mind numbingly amazing... I am speechless.
Think of the military implications, monetary, trade.......
Why was this not factored in???
Andy, Time Bomb 2000 Forum (LUSENET), 01/05/99